The old Normal
May 2020: Over the past 6 weeks or so, we’ve read all about the “new normal” and how, in a “post-COVID” world, things will never be the same. Going back to normal just will not happen after this pandemic. We’ll all just have to adjust to a new reality. Baloney, in my opinion (this is the opinion column, by the way). Some things will change, some will stay the same, some trends will become irrelevant and some trends will continue as if nothing had happened. Some facets of our reality as humans on the planet, bolstered by billions of years of biology, millions of years of evolution and 10’s of thousands of years of human culture will barely notice what happened with a virus in 2020. These three forces of biology, evolution and culture are ones I would not bet against.
Sure, history supports the idea that the black plague, which took out 30 – 50 % of the population of Europe, hastened the recognition of peasants as full humans with agency and rights, thereby changing the social and economic contract in place at the time. Other cataclysmic events have catalysed similar big changes. But humans remain human, shaped by the three forces discussed above. They still fall in love, still get angry, jealous, hungry, passionate, greedy, sad, happy. They still want to look good, still want respect and approval, still wonder about what is the best way to live a life, still seek the transcendent.
So what? So, the megatrends that we concluded were shaping our business and way of life in 2019, haven’t gone away and, if anything, some have been underscored by the virus. Megatrends like digital transformation, especially in retail, healthcare innovation and sustainability, will likely gain greater traction. Last year, consumers were starting to care as much about what they put on their bodies as in their bodies. The pandemic has arguably blurred perception of the line between in and on the body and so has likely accelerated the consumer trend of awareness of personal care product ingredients. The virus has already accelerated our, already in progress, move from the physical to the virtual world for shopping, learning and other pursuits. More focus is now on the wellness component of things we buy as it was also last year. Finally geopolitical tensions may increase and supply chains may get even shorter. Thanks to the recent trade war, firms already were questioning concentrated centers of production. The pandemic is likely to further pressure corporations to consider a supply chain either in their home countries or in closer, more stable trading partners. No change in the prior direction then, but maybe a change in speed.
Of course there’ll be a post-COVID world, just as there was a post 9/11 world, a post dot com bust (remember that?) world, a post WWII world etc. But, (it’s a cliché but it’s true) people are people. Cleopatra wanted to look good (legend has it) and thousands of years, plagues, wars and revolutions later, so do you and I. Romeo fell in love with Juliet, when he probably shouldn't have and hundreds of years later Tony fell in love with Maria (West Side Story!). So don't be seduced by the mantra of “everything’s different now”. It isn't. Because huge forces that we barely understand but that we need to live - that are life, continue to move. Take, for example, those three great human forces, that we see today in times of crisis - fatih hope and love. Lives will be put back together and may look a little diferent. The forces that bind them back together and which drive them forward- they're the same; faith hope and love and the greatest of these (as Romeo,Tony, Juliet, Maria, your mam, brother, friend, partner etc. will tell you) is love.